A new GAVI study published in Vaccine predicts positive long-term impact of vaccines on mortality
A new analysis,
forecasting the impact of vaccinations on mortality, estimates that vaccinations
administered between 2011 and 2020 will help to avert more than 23 million future
deaths. Furthermore, because the analysis did not include several vaccines
already widely in use, the authors conclude that the actual impact may even be
higher than this.
The results appear in a special Decade of
Vaccine supplement of the journal Vaccine, supported by GAVI and featuring a foreword
jointly written by GAVI’s CEO Dr Seth Berkley, Director General of the World
Health Organization, Dr Margaret Chan, President of the Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation Global Development, Christopher Elias, Executive Director of
UNICEF, Anthony Lake, Director of the US National Institute of Allergies and
Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, and Executive Secretary of African Leaders
Malaria Alliance, Joy Phumaphi.
In this study the authors also found that more
than half of the deaths averted over this time period, 52%, are expected to be
in Africa, with 27% in Southeast Asia.
Strategic Demand Forecasts
These figures were calculated by calling upon
data from GAVI’s Strategic Demand Forecasts which estimate that by 2020 nearly
all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have
introduced vaccines protecting against hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type B, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella,
yellow fever, meningitis A and Japanese encephalitis, while three-quarters of
these countries will have introduced human papillomavirus vaccines.
Based on this the impact on mortality was
calculated by looking at the difference in the number of deaths expected over
the lifetime of those vaccinated compared with the number of deaths expected amongst
those unvaccinated. In total the study estimates that these vaccines will
prevent 9.9 million future deaths, with a further 13.4 million prevented from
routine and supplementary measles vaccinations, making a total of 23.3 million
The senior author on the study was GAVI’s
Director of Monitoring and Evaluation, Peter Hansen, along with contributions
from Nina Schwalbe, GAVI’s Managing Director of Policy and Performance, Deblina
Datta, Senior Specialist of Monitoring and Evaluation at GAVI, Lauren
Franzel-Sassanpour, Senior Specialist of Demand Forecasting at GAVI and colleagues
at the World Health Organization, PATH, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, the US Centers
for Disease Control, the UK Health Protection Agency, Harvard School of Public
Health, Harvard Global Health Institute and a private consultant.
The Decade of Vaccine supplement was
created to bring together research reflecting the Global Vaccine Action Plan,
involving 210 authors, 27 different papers, more than 90 reviewers, three guest
editors and the other academic collaborators. The supplement also included a paper
co-authored by GAVI’s Santiago Cornejo, Country Programmes Senior Specialist
for Country Co-Financing, which showed a projection of costs, financing and
additional resource requirements for low- and lower middle-income country
immunisation programmes from 2011 to 2020.