Researchers across the world are working flat out to develop and manufacture a vaccine for COVID-19 that can end what has been the worst pandemic in at least a century. To better understand how long it will take to develop a vaccine and manufacture it at scale, CGD is teaming up with Ariadne Labs and others to conduct expert interviews and build a tool that will generate probabilistic estimates for the likelihood of success of different types of vaccine and how long it could take to develop a vaccine, and to model how long it will take to produce this vaccine at sufficient scale to meet global demand. This will build on the work of other tools which track the stages of development of different vaccines, to estimate the overall probability of success for vaccine candidates and the time taken to reach large-scale manufacturing targets. In this blog post, we focus on the manufacturing part of this process (which we are undertaking with Bryden Wood) and the steps we are taking to model the vaccine manufacturing timeline.
We are developing a system of interconnected models which represent global manufacturing capability from the start of clinical trials to secondary vaccine manufacture; that is, time from first human trials to finished product ready to be shipped. We will split the process of modelling vaccines research and development into three stages, as shown in figure 1: (i) modelling clinical trials until their approval, (ii) modelling the time it takes to scale up manufacturing, and (iii) modelling capacity to predict how long it will take to produce significant volumes of new vaccines.
There are currently more than 200 vaccine candidates against COVID-19, and more than 300 manufacturing facilities across the world that are capable of producing vaccines. With so many moving parts – research continuing at a speed never before seen, and large amounts of the information being politically or commercially sensitive – data collection at this scale is not an exact science. To provide a practical and realistic framework for data collection, we are grouping vaccines into seven different “platforms.” These platforms range from more traditional and established methods – such as an inactivated viral vaccine, where virus particles with no ability to produce disease are used to stimulate an immune response – to newer technologies including DNA and RNA vaccines which produce an immune response without viral particles.
In light of this, a model must be able to function with uncertainty and provide useful indications within practical limitations. In order to achieve this we will us use ranges and distributions for plausible estimates and put these into a Monte Carlo simulation. This is a technique that estimates the probability of different outcomes by running multiple simulations with different estimates randomly chosen from a plausible range, and then aggregating the results.
Where factual inputs exist, these go straight into the model. We are then collecting ranges or plausible estimates from a number of sources, all of which is currently underway. These include:
We will use this information to estimate how many doses of vaccines can be produced in a given period. We will then combine this information with WHO- published estimates of doses required to cover priority groups, support enough coverage to protect healthcare systems, reduce COVID-19- related mortality, and ensure fair access to vaccines. As and when the WHO estimates of phased global demand are updated, we will update accordingly in our model.
To estimate how long it will take to manufacture enough vaccines, we must first know which vaccines need to be manufactured. To estimate the probability of success for different vaccine platforms, we interviewed 17 experts with expertise in vaccine development and vaccine manufacturing. We also collected information on funding for vaccine candidates, and on plausible timelines. We then put this into a Monte Carlo simulation model, which thousands of times, with each run, vaccines randomly succeed and fail in line with their perceived probability of success. While the results of an individual run will not tell us a lot about the vaccine portfolio, by aggregating the results we should get a sense of both timelines and numbers of vaccines that could be approved.
This part of the model aims to estimate the time required after a vaccine has been approved before commercial manufacture can begin. This is an important, yet perhaps publicly underdiscussed, factor in the supply of any drug. A drug substance that has been manufactured for early stage clinical trials is most often at “R&D scale,” produced in facilities with lab or small-scale equipment to supply doses in the thousands. Scaling up manufacturing to commercial scale adds complexity. Therefore, any attempt at commercial manufacture in the order of millions or billions of doses needs to consider the steps to scale up the process and adapt it for manufacture at a given location; under normal circumstances, this could take a few years.
The transition from R&D to manufacturing is typically carried out by a large multifunctional team and includes process development activities, design and construction activities, and quality assurance/regulatory activities. We have broken this transition down and simplified it to form a series of steps for any vaccine. For each step, we assigned a probabilistic distribution of durations around a value based on experience. The distributions tend to be right skewed (meaning things take longer than planned) because, unfortunately, there are constraints that stop things being done in less than a certain time but many potential delays that are without constraints. Steps can overlap; in particular, scale-up and preparation of manufacturing facilities can start earlier than normal, “at risk” (of failure of the candidate).
Strict regulations to ensure that manufacturing processes and plants meet current good manufacturing practice (CGMP) guidelines also add time to the transition from R&D to commercial manufacturing. The plant and equipment must be qualified, and processes shown to be safe and effective and licensed by regulators from all the jurisdictions where the vaccine will be used. Data for the product, process, and plant must be submitted to regulators in every jurisdiction where the vaccine will be used, and regulators vary in their requirements and, often, their areas of focus. Regulators can ask for clarifications or improvements, sometimes requiring additional data to be generated or even modifications to plant or process. There are some intellectual property (IP) issues when companies are trying to scale up manufacturing using Contract Manufacturing Organisations, a particular risk for newer companies in the business with newer manufacturing platforms, who don’t always have an established process for how to deal with IP with suppliers of clinical material (this has already been a problem for two candidates). All of this can cause delay.
In addition to manufacturing capacity, such a large scale-up also requires sufficient quantities of auxiliary supplies, such as vials (or other primary containers), adjuvants, and in some cases, single-use bioreactors.
The overall sequence is well-understood, but there are many factors – such as type of vaccine and dosage form, manufacturing location, and supply markets – that affect how long each step takes. Through industry expert input, we are developing an initial model to represent each key stage of a vaccine’s journey from success in clinical trials to commercial manufacturing. The model incorporates possibilities that capacity already exists at sites, that existing capacity requires modification, or a new factory is required. This includes all steps of “qualification” – validation and testing processes that ensure equipment has been installed correctly and will perform as expected under real factory conditions. To account for variability, stages will be defined by ranges and distributions rather than single parameters.
The primary output from the overall model is an understanding of when global vaccine demand – defined here by the WHO targets – may be met. It is intended to collect global manufacturing capability for primary (manufacture of the active ingredient, for instance virus or mRNA) and secondary (manufacture of the dose form, for instance a vial of a liquid solution of the active ingredient) manufacturing, which would be used to build a picture of currently available capacity and potential future capacity for the suite of vaccine platforms and technologies. CEPI recently published an extensive survey-based assessment of available capacity This data will inform our understanding of global manufacturing capability for different vaccine platforms, and be used in the manufacturing model to enable us to calculate the timelines.
Outputs from the R&D model are used a starting point, indicating when individual vaccine candidates may pass clinical trials – using a defined point in time as a reference point. Each successful vaccine will then pass through the manufacturing implementation model to determine a timeline for start of primary and secondary manufacture. Vaccines can then be allocated to available network capacity for the appropriate platform, computing the monthly dose production and cumulative dose count not only as a total, but also for each vaccine individually. This level of detail may be important given the possibility that different vaccines can be used for different populations (age ranges, for example) based on the level of immune response elicited. In comparing these production figures with the WHO targets, the time from the reference point to production milestones can be estimated.
We are currently developing and testing this model based on the functionality outlined above. Once we’ve completed preliminary data collection and building the model, it will be run for parameters as defined by data collection and expert input. Our aim is to be able to give initial estimates of timelines of when vaccines would be widely available to the patient population.
We hope that with more collaboration and knowledge sharing, collective understanding of the challenges of manufacturing vaccines at scale will improve, allowing governments and institutional purchasers who are investing in vaccine development programs and manufacturing capacity to better identify potential gaps or shortcomings. Such models may also provide a picture of when a vaccine is likely to be in our hands.
We need a range of treatments to make Covid-19 preventable and treatable. Jeremy Farrar describes recent progress made by research and why more investment is needed.
Herd immunity threshold may have been reached in Amazonas capital, Manaus, but experts warn that herd immunity is not the end of the pandemic.
Vaccines based on the common cold virus are at the forefront of the COVID-19 vaccine race, but they may be less effective in people who have previously been infected by these common pathogens. So how could we overcome this challenge?
Global Handwashing Day and the ongoing spread of COVID-19 is a timely reminder about the importance of handwashing with soap as an effective and affordable way to stay healthy.
As the pandemic unfolded around the world, hand sanitizer and handwashing stations became as in-demand as toilet paper.
Gavi’s long-term approach to developing healthy markets for critical vaccines has led to greater stability and security, providing countries with the confidence that supplies will be available to meet their demand.
In 2019, a higher share of Gavi-supported countries than ever before met their co-financing obligations on time, thanks to strong political commitment.
Big data has the potential to change society for the better, but this opportunity is being undermined by a failure to collect data from across societies and make it publicly available.
Gavi’s CEO explains how its Advance Market Commitment mechanism will make COVID-19 vaccines available to lower-income countries.
In 2019, countries delivered more than 230 million routine vaccinations, a record number, supported by unprecedented levels of health system funding from Gavi to support immunisation and protect the most vulnerable children. Here is what Gavi did…
On International Day of the Girl Child, Gavi’s Megan Holloway looks at how COVID-19 is impacting the lives of girls
As the most ambitious pandemic-response initiative ever conceived, the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility is the best chance the world has to bring the pandemic to an end. But to succeed, COVAX requires broad international buy-in, based on…
These global efforts are increasingly urgent as the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put millions of lives at risk from famine and malnutrition.
People who have had COVID-19 can develop an immune response that normally protects people from recurrent infection. But now that reinfections of COVID-19 have been recorded, what does that mean for our ability to fight the virus?
European Commission Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) humanitarian air bridge made it possible
Japanese Government pledges US$ 130 million in funding to the Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC), bringing the total raised to roughly US$ 1.8 billion.
Preventing and controlling infectious disease is possible with dedication of health workers, multi-stakeholder collaboration and equitable access to vaccines. Africa’s wild polio-free certification, which took decades of collaborative effort, is…
Just over six months since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, what do we know about this new coronavirus?
For more than 30 years, monoclonal antibodies have transformed the way we treat many diseases. Researchers think they are also one of the most promising treatments for Covid-19. Here's why.
Emergency use procedures are designed to make potentially life-saving medical products available as quickly as possible during health emergencies. A record number have been granted since the arrival of COVID-19 pandemic, but what does this mean…
Polio, a contagious disease caused by the poliomyelitis virus is transmitted primarily when stool from someone infected contaminates foods, drinks or water sources. It invades the nervous system and could, in a matter of hours, lead to complete…
Vaccines are designed to trigger an immune response to pathogens we’ve never encountered before. But how does it feel to be one of the first humans to encounter a new vaccine? British communications consultant Heather Macdonald-Tait explains what…
The United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy and Sweden pledge approximately US$ 960 million to Gavi’s COVID-19 Vaccines Advance Market Commitment (COVAX AMC)
In a matter of months, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the global economy. Now a new study looks at how this economic shock is impacting sovereign debt levels of Gavi-supported countries.
Africa has not been as hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic as predicted. Here, we talk to Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the head of South Africa's Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 to find out why and what the future might hold.
In the first of this series, we look at the highlights of an evaluation to determine the potential barriers to immunisation caused by the increase in urbanisation.
Vaccines save lives by protecting children and adults from diseases. COVID-19 pandemic is a clear example of what a world without vaccines could look like. Governments should ensure that delivery of essential services such as vaccines remains a…
Throughout the 2016–2020 strategic period, the Vaccine Alliance has worked with countries to improve data quality. From GIS to SMS, new tech and tools aim to reach more people with life-saving immunisation.
To bring countries on a trajectory towards financial sustainability, and to empower them to take ownership
of their vaccination programmes, Gavi has pioneered an approach to co-financing and transition.
With only 542 global cases in 2019, polio is a distant memory in most parts of the world. However, this highly contagious disease could spread rapidly in communities with limited access to vaccines, health care and sanitation – a risk greatly…
The Gavi Board has approved the provision of US$ 150 million in initial funding to jumpstart support COVAX AMC-eligible countries’ readiness to deliver COVID-19 vaccines, in the form of planning, technical assistance and cold chain equipment
Her own healthy baby son is how Ugandan nurse Maureen Wandawa demonstrates the benefits of immunization. Working together to build confidence in, and access to, vaccines for all who need them is one way we can #UniteforHealth to keep us all safer…
Gavi's partnership with telecoms provider Orange and the Ministry of Health overcomes barriers to childhood immunisation through tailored, tested technology.
The Covid-19 pandemic is a social and an economic crisis just as much as it is a health crisis – its repercussions, severe and far-reaching, are being felt across the world.
The true number could be much higher, and two million could die before we get a vaccine, says the World Health Organization.
The UK is expected to host the world’s first COVID-19 human “challenge” trials, which will involve deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with coronavirus to assess the effectiveness of experimental vaccines. So far, around 2,000 potential…
Gender equality must be at the heart of not only our response, but our attempts to restructure systems to be fairer and more equal to recover better.
The prospect of having the first supplies of at least a few effective COVID-19 medicines and vaccines by the end of 2020 is a key driver of recent market optimism.
The benefits of immunisation extend beyond preventing childhood deaths. Vaccines are also a vital tool in the fights against cancer, outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance.
Every winter, hundreds of thousands become infected with seasonal influenza, which kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people worldwide each year. But this year, we have another respiratory illness to contend with: COVID-19. So, what does this mean…
Collaboration among the Serum Institute of India (SII), Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will accelerate manufacturing and delivery of up to an additional 100 million doses of future vaccines, if proven to be…
When I join Gavi in January, it will be at a time when it is contemplating the most ambitious period in its history.
We are close to a polio-free world, yet cases of vaccine-derived disease are challenging the eradication effort.
Tips for teachers to protect themselves and their students.
The goal of our market shaping work is to help ensure vaccine markets work better for lower-income countries. We want the maximum number of people to receive the life-saving and health-protecting benefits of immunisation.
After transitioning out of Gavi support in 2017, the Republic of Moldova is mobilising champions and advocates to strengthen vaccine confidence – which is crucial to the success and sustainability of immunisation programmes.
An ingredient called dmLT could be the key to improving vaccine effectiveness in low-resource settings.
Biggest funders of emerging infectious diseases R&D are also biggest recipients. Ebola and Zika experienced R&D spike in wake of epidemics. US is losing global leadership role in the field.
Vaccine manufacturers have worked hard to adapt to a new normal of keeping supplies for immunisation programmes going in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Typhoid fever is increasingly resistant to the main antibiotics used to treat it. Gavi is supporting a new vaccine to help control this deadly disease – and fight antimicrobial resistance.
We commit to fostering a just, equitable and diverse culture free from racism and discrimination in which all staff, partners and stakeholders feel empowered, safe and heard.
At the beginning of the pandemic there was a mad scramble to develop a test which would accurately diagnose COVID-19 infection. Now, six months in, hundreds of testsare available – but how do they differ, and which test is the most appropriate…
September 2020 marks the 75th anniversary of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This year, the focus of the high-level General Debate is the importance of effective multilateralism.
Gavi’s Derrick Sim, Director of Vaccine Supply and Demand, discusses why it is sometimes important to halt clinical trials.
Snapshots from DRC, India and Zambia illustrate country ownership and progress in the fights against Ebola, polio and HPV.
Being in a constant state of high alert and uncertainty is exhausting yet health officials warn that we can’t let our guard down yet and resisting living with the ‘new normal’ could threaten our health.
Some researchers conducting clinical trials on a COVID-19 vaccine have not revealed to the public what the placebo contains, but they should.
Supporting health systems is essential for Gavi’s work to improve immunisation coverage and equity.
We need to understand the impact of Covid-19 on wider health issues to shape better public health responses and limit long-term consequences. Drug resistance is one of these, Gemma Buckland-Merrett explains.
How will COVAX ensure that COVID-19 vaccine doses reach all countries at the same time, and protect those people that need it the most?
When disaster strikes a country, the impact on people’s health can be immense and long-lasting. As the effects of climate change are felt around the world through rising temperatures and sea levels, natural disasters are increasingly frequent and…
64 higher income economies have now joined the COVAX Facility, with a further 38 economies expected to sign in the coming days
When I was 12, I received the HPV vaccine just like most girls my age in Rwanda. The day after we got the first dose, my classmates started spreading rumours about the vaccine that they had heard from their families and communities.
Vaccines are the best tools yet invented to prevent child deaths and protect people’s health. Gavi funding for access to vaccines has protected a generation of children growing up in lower-income countries. Gavi funds twin approaches to…
Effective vaccines prevent individuals from developing disease, but some also stop people transmitting the pathogens that cause them. What role will they have to play in ending the COVID-19 pandemic?
While scientific and vaccine manufacturing community make huge strides in the race towards that goal, it is important to remember that vaccines are only one of three Vs needed to beat this coronavirus.
How one social mobiliser in South Sudan has managed to contribute to health security in her region.
Anecdotes of how people feel about vaccines are plenty, but there have been few attempts to gather robust global data. This five-year study reviewed survey responses from over a quarter of a million people around the world on how they felt about…
Gavi’s CEO provides an overview of its flagship publication, launched today.
In Malawi, primary school drop-out rates are among the highest in Africa. To try and guarantee high coverage, the HPV vaccine is administered to 9-years-old girls.
No one is safe until everyone is safe. This phrase has become a slogan for global health figures but what does it mean in the worldwide COVID-19 response?
If a COVID-19 vaccine is to reach the global public sometime next year, it will be the result of one of the fastest developments and rollouts of a vaccine against a new disease ever. In contrast, the RTS,S malaria vaccine, which is currently…
Ethiopia has overtaken Nigeria to become the Gavi-eligible African country most affected by COVID-19. Over the past week, the number of confirmed cases in Ethiopia has grown exponentially. Despite the pandemic, immunisation activities – both…
As CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance funded largely by Bill Gates, Dr Seth Berkley has helped vaccinate almost half the world’s children from fatal and debilitating diseases. His current baby is the COVAX Facility to help develop, manufacture and…
As COVID-19 vaccines have a critical role to play in ending this pandemic crisis, many experts have described them as a global public good. But what exactly does that mean?
You may have heard the saying, “no products, no programs,” but for those who work in public health during COVID-19, the saying has become “no PPE, no programs.” And for community health workers (CHWs) who play a vital role in providing health…
Scientists around the world are working at an unprecedented pace to test different types of vaccines that could help to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Many of the infections that can lead to sepsis are becoming resistant to antibiotics, which means that preventing them by vaccination is critical.
Helping rural and urban girls across Ethiopia understand cervical cancer and HPV
Antibodies are one route to immunity against disease, but T cells and innate immunity also play a crucial role in protecting us. So, how could these different types of immunity be mobilised against COVID-19
More than 3,000 health workers are conducting a three-day health campaign from 30 August to 1 September 2020 to ensure that around 400,000 children aged under five receive measles and polio vaccines, as well as vitamin A and deworming tablets, at…
To end this global health crisis we don’t just need COVID-19 vaccines, we also need to ensure that everyone in the world has access to them.
When COVID-19 vaccines become available demand is likely to outstrip supply, at least initially. So, who should be first in line?
Researchers across the world are working flat out to develop and manufacture a vaccine for COVID-19 that can end what has been the worst pandemic in at least a century.
Dr Melanie Saville, CEPI’s Director of Vaccine Development, discusses what a successful vaccine against COVID-19 would involve, some of the unknowns and the challenges that vaccine developers are wrestling with, and what makes CEPI’s approach…
Before the pandemic began, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was already facing a severe measles outbreak which started at the end of 2018. Despite huge challenges caused by COVID-19 and other diseases, the largest measles outbreak in…
How the African Region is Celebrating the End of Wild Polio while cVDPV Outbreaks Continue
What do the first confirmed cases of reinfection with COVID-19 mean for the rest of us and future of this pandemic?
The funding will support the Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC), which aims to secure doses of COVID-19 vaccines for 92 low- and middle-income countries and economies at the same time as wealthier nations
By foot, boat and bicycle, thousands of volunteer vaccinators in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) go to extraordinary efforts, sometimes at personal risk, to help eradicate polio.
An estimated $15.9 trillion has been mobilised to respond to the health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of this has gone to multilateral and bilateral funders to support low- and middle-income countries’ (LMIC) governments.
When Aisha took her son Busami Modu to his grandmother’s house in Kuya, a village in Borno state, Nigeria, she waved goodbye to a healthy, happy little boy. A “beauty to behold,” she recalls. The next time she saw him, he was paralysed and unable…
Goal of bringing the pandemic under control via equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines needs urgent, broadscale commitment and investment from countries
One of the most time-consuming parts of vaccine research and development is the testing of a vaccine. How does this work, and how, in the context of COVID-19, are scientists trying to speed it up?
Data from global Ipsos survey shows 37% of those polled worldwide think it is likely a vaccine will be available by the end of the year. But is this optimism misplaced?
CSOs will play a vital role in the development and implementation of the COVAX initiative as well as the deployment of any successful vaccine through COVAX.
As one of the African countries most affected by COVID-19, Nigeria has faced significant economic and health impacts, including to routine immunisation, in the face of the pandemic.
Diarrheal disease is the second leading infectious killer of children under five worldwide. Lessons learned from tackling this deadly disease could also help us recover from COVID-19 stronger than ever.
A surveillance system in Somalia is providing real-time early warning disease alerts to help tackle health threats such as measles outbreaks and COVID-19 cases.
As more people have moved to cities, population density, human encroachment and increased global interconnectivity have contributed to the spread of infectious diseases.
COVID-19 has triggered lockdown measures for billions of people around the world. As many of us struggle to adapt to the ‘new normal’, we look at the origins of quarantine measures - and how they’ve been used to contain deadly outbreaks for…
Vaccines prevent millions of deaths every year by harnessing the body’s immune system to create defences against future infection. But how exactly does this work?
New landmark collaboration between the Serum Institute of India (SII), Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to accelerate manufacturing and delivery of up to 100 million doses of future safe and effective COVID-…
Despite disruption to routine immunisation in Gavi-eligible countries due to COVID-19, collaborative efforts between Alliance partners and governments have made it possible to partially resume immunisation sessions in countries such as Pakistan…
The misinformation surrounding COVID-19 in the Democratic Repubic of the Congo isn’t new – public health officials have seen rumours and myths circulate with Ebola. Here’s how they are tackling them.
Analysis suggests that investments in vaccination programmes will result in US$ 0.8 trillion in returns over the next ten years.
Since 2000, Gavi has been increasing equitable access to vaccines by working with the world’s poorest countries. Yet during a pandemic, more prosperous countries are also at risk of falling through the net. How will Gavi respond?
Gavi Board agrees scope of COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC), which aims to secure doses of COVID-19 vaccines for 92 low- and middle-income countries and economies at the same time as wealthier nations.
If you test positive for COVID-19 antibodies, does that actually mean you’ve been infected?
In the recent past, 25-year-old Zahra Mohamud* had visited the Hawadle maternal and child health centre in Hargeisa regularly to have her older son Ibrahim* vaccinated against the most common childhood diseases.
Lower-income countries are seeing better vaccination coverage than they have had in decades, but the COVID-19 pandemic is threatening to hamper progress.
When COVID-19 vaccines become available, one of the biggest challenges the global community will face is equitable distribution. This will be the single largest vaccine deployment in history.
New analysis of WHO/UNICEF data by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, shows the gap in vaccine coverage between Gavi-supported lower-income countries and wealthier countries has shrunk to record lows
Briefings led by Gavi, CEPI and WHO over the past two weeks saw participation from at least 136 countries interested in joining a COVAX Facility aimed at guaranteeing equitable access to eventual COVID-19 vaccines.
Governments have had to act fast to not only protect their people against COVID-19 but also to ensure protective measures like vaccination against other infectious diseases…
The UK has just secured 90 million doses of future COVID-19 vaccines, and now it is trying to recruit volunteers for some of the biggest ever phase 3 trials to test potential vaccines.
Health workers are stopping at nothing to ensure immunizations for every child.
Reports of a potentially more infectious form of the coronavirus have fed fears that a "mutant” version of the virus could arise. But what does mutation actually mean and is it really a cause for concern?
It’s a devil’s choice governments have faced since the start of the pandemic, but new research could provide the answer.
While researchers racing to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the potential of the BCG vaccine - used to prevent TB – to slow the pandemic has been hotly debated. New research suggesting that the BCG could prevent severe COVID-19 disease has made…
Ever since the new coronavirus was identified, there has been a debate about whether it is airborne or not. Now, over 200 scientists from around the world have written to the World Health Organization urging it to consider the potential of COVID-…
As the world waits for a vaccine to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic, we look back to all that vaccines have achieved for humanity.
Seventy-five countries submit expressions of interest to COVAX Facility, joining up to 90 further countries which could be supported by the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC)
The head of Gapminder, whose mission is to fight ignorance with a fact-based world view, talks with Gavi about data and COVID-19.
Living Goods saves lives by supporting digitally empowered community health workers who deliver care
With surveys using antibody tests yielding disappointing results, there are growing concerns that fewer people may have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 than was previously hoped. Yet antibodies are only part of our immune system’s response…
This article is a summary of an online conversation hosted by the Gavi CSO Constituency in partnership with ACTION, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, RESULTS UK & Save the Children.
Routine immunisation has slowed in many Gavi-supported countries around the world. Here, researchers writing in The Lancet, including a Gavi scientist, look at the effect of lockdown on vaccination programmes in Karachi, Pakistan
Global technology company TransferWise and a donor which asked to remain anonymous made significant financial commitments to Gavi’s Advance Market Commitment for COVID-19 Vaccines (Gavi COVAX AMC)
Across Gavi-eligible countries, we have seen a consistent increase in cases since March 2020. Within the month of June alone, the number of cases has more than doubled, with 70 out of 73 Gavi-eligible countries reporting over 1 million confirmed…
As of 27 June 2020, there have been 513 tests carried out in the camps, with 49 confirmed cases.
The first African clinical trial for a COVID-19 vaccine has started in South Africa, run by the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (Wits).
'Global Goal: Unite for Our Future' mobilized over $6.9 billion to help the world’s most vulnerable.
On 25 June, the outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that has raged for more than 2 years is over. What does this mean for the country and what can it teach us about ending the COVID-19 pandemic?
Gavi Board shows support for continued work on COVAX Facility: a global, coordinated mechanism designed to ensure rapid and equitable access to safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines to as broad a global population as possible
With more than 200 COVID-19 vaccines already in development, why do we need the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator Vaccine Pillar, or COVAX Pillar?
DRC government and WHO declare over the long-running Ebola outbreak in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri provinces after more than 50 days without a case.
At a time when economies are under pressure and government spending is under scrutiny, transparency and accountability within the development sector is more important than ever.
The Vaccine Alliance ranked in the highest ‘Very good’ category out of 47 international development organisations assessed in the 2020 Aid Transparency Index
Beijing, a city month’s ahead of Europe in COVID-19 terms, is now plunging back into lockdown. Many are concerned that this could be the first hint of a second wave. But is that likely and what would it look like?
There has been a huge variation in how countries have responded to COVID-19. Whilst some have imposed strict lockdown measures, others have avoided tight restrictions. But what works best?
Seventy (of 73) Gavi-eligible countries have reported 824,259 confirmed cases and 20,641 deaths. The number of cases is increasing at an average rate of 4% from the previous day.
Even mild symptoms from the new coronavirus can last for weeks, or disappear only to rebound with renewed intensity, so what long-term effects does the disease have on our health?
As the devastating consequences of the pandemic unfold across the world, COVID-19 is making long-lasting changes in global health
So far relatively few people in Africa have been infected by the novel coronavirus, with around 215,000 cases and 5,800 deaths in a population of 1.2 billion in the continent. But with lockdowns lifting, will cases soar?
New supply agreement between UNICEF and Serum Institute of India (SII) makes pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) available at US$2.00 per dose, a 43% reduction from the Gavi price at the start of the AMC
How to safely get routine vaccinations for your child during the COVID-19 pandemic
With so many COVID-19 candidate vaccines in development, and with most of them likely to fail, what’s the best way for governments to ensure they back a winner and ensure there are enough doses for everyone?
A third of the world has been under some form of lockdown to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, but has it made any difference to the number of cases and deaths?
A Gavi-supported digital immunisation registry is keeping track of vaccination activities to make sure children remain protected from other infectious diseases.
SARS, Ebola, Zika, and now COVID-19. Five reasons why disease epidemics and even pandemics are becoming increasingly common.
Despite the devastating economic impact this pandemic has had on businesses across the world, many are doing their part to bring this crisis to an end.
Ideally, humanity would end COVID-19 by eradicating it so there are no new cases globally even in the absence of preventive measures. However, experience with other disease eradication programmes indicates that this will be very challenging, and…
On 4 June, global leaders met at a virtual event to pledge support for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and in the process made history by reaching new global health milestones
Seventy (out of 73) Gavi-eligible countries have reported 475,401 confirmed cases and 12,464 deaths. Though this number still accounts for a small proportion, about 7%, of global COVID-19 cases, this share is expected to increase given the…
The Global Vaccine Summit, hosted by the UK, raises US$ 8.8 billion from 32 donor governments and 12 foundations, corporations and organisations to immunise 300m children and support the global fight against COVID-19.
Gavi Advance Market Commitment for COVID-19 Vaccines (Gavi Covax AMC) launched at Global Vaccine Summit 2020 draws strong support, early commitments from global leaders.
We’ve all seen the shocking projections: at least 80 million children under one are at risk of developing diseases like measles, diphtheria, and polio due to disruptions in routine immunization services because of COVID-19.
As one of the poorest low-income countries in South East Asia, Myanmar faces many barriers to implementing a strong and effective response to COVID-19. Gavi has now allocated over US$ 8.8 million to help ensure that Myanmar is better able to…
In the absence of a vaccine or treatment against the new coronavirus, measures to control its spread rely on avoiding contact with people who we are not sharing a house with. This study shows the varying effects of such preventive measures.
The physical distancing necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 can be emotionally distressing, but since the virus is unlikely to disappear soon, when will life regain a semblance of normality?
Zipline is a California-based automated logistics company that uses autonomous drones to make on-demand, emergency deliveries of high priority products, including emergency and routine vaccines and other health products.
The pandemic will only strengthen our commitment to vaccinate vulnerable communities. On 4 June 2020 Gavi will hold its third donor pledging conference online with the aim to raise vital funds for the next five years.
The COVID-19 pandemic is most often compared to the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918, or Spanish flu, even though there have been three other major pandemics since then. So how does this coronavirus pandemic compare to those?
Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines was a major priority for world leaders attending the virtual meeting
Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities in Europe and the USA are overrepresented in COVID-19 deaths. In the bid to slow and, ultimately, stop the spread of COVID-19 it is vital to understand the reasons why, in order to adequately…
Health is not just a human right, it is a prerequisite for development. Through its advocacy programme Global Health, Global Access, Cordaid continually stresses the importance of Health for All.
While the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths stays relatively low across Africa, Asia and Latin America compared with the rest of the world, the economic and social consequences are likely to reverberate for decades to come.
The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting vaccination programmes across the world, but this could provide an opportunity to hasten the move to digital record-keeping systems.
Altering the ease with which the new coronavirus spreads in the population is critical to controlling the pandemic. The number of people infected by any single case - the R number – will be key. If the virus is able to infect more than one person…
There is no fundamental reason to stop immunization in any situation.
Seventy (out of 73) Gavi-eligible countries have reported 257,996 confirmed cases and 7,547 deaths. These 70 countries account for a small proportion, about 5%, of global COVID-19 cases and 2% of global deaths.
Vietnam became one of the first countries to report a COVID-19 infection and the first to report human-to-human transmission outside of China. One hundred days later, just 270 cases had been confirmed in the country, with no deaths.
It is clear that the search for COVID-19 vaccines is being fast-tracked like never before. In just a few months, we now have over 100 vaccine candidates in development, ten of which are being tested in clinical trials.
Agencies call for joint effort to safely deliver routine immunization and proceed with vaccination campaigns against deadly vaccine-preventable diseases.
Experts are warning that COVID-19 could become an endemic disease. What does this mean and how will it impact our response?
Pregnant women can be more exposed to risk during outbreaks. With 200 million pregnant women in the world, is the global pandemic response adequate to protect them, and not just from the coronavirus?
The country has made strategic investments including supply chain strengthening and technological innovation, all of which have allowed critical immunisation activities to continue during and beyond the quarantine.
Does air travel increase your chances of getting becoming infected by the novel coronavirus and contracting COVID-19?
Controlling the pandemic demands a multi-pronged approach with other key methods like contact tracing to help stop the chain of transmission.
Zenysis is an advanced analytics software company. Their platform helps countries harness the life-saving power of data to improve the delivery of essential health services, like childhood vaccination, and to fight infectious disease outbreaks.…
What our lives will look in the short to medium term future is uncertain, but what does seem clear is we won’t return to a pre-COVID-19 life any time soon. Here are three potential scenarios that infectious disease experts have sketched out for…
The COVID-19 pandemic is putting a strain on health systems worldwide. The increasing demand on health facilities and health care workers has dramatically shifted resources from essential routine health services to COVID-19 response as countries…
Social inequity will put the poorest populations at greater risk from COVID-19
Initially, children seemed to be least affected by the new coronavirus. However, new evidence suggests that a small number might have a rare immune reaction to COVID-19, with some needing intensive care.
As countries rich and poor struggle with challenges in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Afghanistan is taking proactive steps to overcome its own.
Personal protective equipment, or PPE, such as masks and gloves are becoming part of our daily lives, but what counts as effective PPE and what doesn’t?
The new coronavirus has killed more than a quarter of a million people in just a few months, but the pandemic’s effect on food, housing and job insecurity will last years.
Will efforts to save lives in cases of severe COVID-19 trigger another global health crisis once the pandemic is over?
Sixty-nine (out of 73) Gavi-eligible countries have reported 123,129 confirmed cases and 3,941 deaths, five more countries than the 64 announced last week. These countries account for about 3% of global COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Tracking who is infected is essential to controlling the transmission of contagious diseases. Could digital technology prove to be a game-changer for the current pandemic?
Because of vaccination, many deadly diseases are now preventable. But we still lack vaccines for other potentially lethal diseases that could spread to become pandemics like COVID-19. Here is a list of 10 diseases to watch.
Even when a COVID-19 vaccine is available, testing can help pinpoint populations who should be prioritised for immunisation.
For the global health community, the implications resulting from COVID-19 could be immense.
How we can ensure that once a COVID-19 vaccine is available, it is accessible to everyone that needs it.
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a heavy burden on global economies, health care systems and other core sectors. Gavi is helping countries reallocate their health system strengthening grants to provide fast and flexible funding for vital…
Q&A with Dr Vertando Halim, Coordinator of Expanded Programme on Immunization, Jakarta, Indonesia
With so many lives and livelihoods at stake, when will the lockdowns end, and what will they look like across the world?
As part of Gavi’s work supporting lower-income countries’ response to COVID-19, the Alliance is providing US$ 40 million to UNICEF to secure supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) and diagnostics for 58 countries.
The world is currently on pause, buying time while an effective vaccine against COVID-19 is developed. Already, several vaccines have entered human trials, and discussions have begun about how the most promising candidates might be manufactured…
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a heavy burden on global economies, healthcare systems and other core sectors. Gavi is helping countries reallocate their health system strengthening grants to provide fast and flexible funding for vital resources…
Goal of new global collaboration is to make COVID-19 diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines available to everybody that needs them as quickly as possible.
How the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic can help us be better prepared for distributing and administering potential COVID-19 vaccines.
Indigenous groups face unique health challenges. How do we mitigate these risks in our COVID response?
How exactly is the COVID-19 virus spread and will a mask protect me?
The immediate and long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic are disproportionately impacting the lives of women and girls, and the most marginalised.
How does the benefit of stopping the spread of coronavirus weigh up against the risks from diseases such as measles?
With COVID-19 spreading in low- and middle-income countries, governments have been imposing strict lockdowns that could pose an even greater threat than the virus itself.
Interview with Emmanuel Lansana, outpatient supervisor at Monrovia’s Redemption Hospital in Liberia, about lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak that can help tackle COVID-19.
Africa is better prepared now to perform research in emerging infections than during the Ebola epidemics in West Africa.
Will new evidence suggesting that the virus is airborne mean we all need to wear masks?
Although there are guidelines on how long people should self-isolate when infected, the data on how long people remain contagious is not yet fully understood.
Could the impact of COVID-19 on routine immunisation be an even bigger threat in low-income countries than the virus itself?
At least 13.5 million people to miss out on vaccinations due to postponement of campaigns and interruptions in routine vaccinations, with millions more likely to follow.
As we continue to encroach on the environment and erode natural habitats, the likelihood of other diseases like COVID-19 emerging to devastate the planet are high.
Large-scale testing for COVID-19 could help solve some of the mysteries surrounding the virus that are still puzzling scientists.
Imperial model of the spread of COVID-19 implies a suppression strategy could be most effective.
With nearly 550,000 people infected, almost 25,000 dead, and hundreds of millions in lockdown across the globe, the coronavirus pandemic has brought the world to a standstill. But what do we know about COVID-19 and what can we do to fight this…
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance applauds the commitment of the G20 Leaders chaired by Saudi Arabia “to provide immediate resources to the WHO’s…
The idea of herd immunity as the solution to the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered heated debate, but what is herd immunity and how does it work?
Over 1 billion lives are at risk if COVID-19 sweeps through crowded slums. How can we prepare?
With an increasing number of countries around the globe going into lockdown because of the COVID-19 pandemic, many people forced to stay home may be wondering why these measures are necessary, how long they will need to go on for and what it will…
On the most recent issue of The Bio Report podcast, Gavi's Aurélia Nguyen discusses COVID-19 vaccine development, the role of the Vaccine Alliance in stopping the pandemic, and shares lessons learned from the 2014 Ebola outbreak that may prove…
When a COVID-19 vaccine is available, how will we pay for it?
With the COVID-19 pandemic already affecting 47 Gavi-supported countries, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance has already taken new steps to help strengthen the preparedness of health systems in lower-income countries with the full support of its Board.…
If COVID-19 epidemics are not controlled, 510,000 people could die in the UK and 2.2 million in the USA.
With zero cases of COVID-19 in Mozambique so far, Dr Rosa Marlene, National Director of Public Health of Mozambique, discusses a potential impact that a pandemic of this magnitude could have on the country’s health system.
We touch countless objects every day, from house keys to our mobile phones. The virus that causes COVID-19 can last for anywhere from 30 minutes to several hours in the air (in the form of aerosol droplets) before drifting down onto surfaces,…
Clinical trials for vaccines can take 10-15 years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, which is why pharmaceutical companies can be reluctant to start down that challenging road without a definite pay-off at the end. As the COVID-19 pandemic…
Africa marks a critical juncture for the coronavirus pandemic.
From travel restrictions to social distancing, what is the best way to stop a pandemic?
We don’t yet know how the COVID-19 pandemic will progress and how long it will take for a vaccine to be developed, but the knowledge and experience gained from past outbreaks can be applied to the global response to coronavirus.
A vaccine against the novel coronavirus is under urgent development as the number of people infected with COVID-19 increases, a process which could also result in a new range of highly innovative vaccine technologies that ushers in a new era in…