Gavi produces two types of forecasts: strategic demand scenarios (SDS) and a base demand forecast (BDF) to improve its understanding of vaccine markets. In the context of supply and procurement strategies, these serve as important tools to ensure clarity and understanding of the Gavi market for important stakeholders, including manufacturers and countries.
 
SDSs are vaccine-specific and primarily targeted at informing important medium and longer-term decisions. These are tailored to the strategic decisions and market context relevant to each vaccine. The SDSs tend to focus on a subset of countries relevant to a specific decision and a time horizon of 3 to 20 years.
 
Gavi benefits from the expertise of Vaccine Alliance partners and other experts who provide advice to the forecasting, including consultative support on the key challenges in specific vaccine markets and technical endorsement of specific vaccine SDSs.
 
For more information regarding Gavi’s SDSs, please contact forecast@gavi.org.
 
The Base Demand Forecast (BDF) is an annual publication of a single scenario covering all Gavi funded vaccines across the 73 countries that were eligible for Gavi support as of 2011. It has a time horizon of up to 10 years. Whilst prepared at the individual vaccine level, this forecast takes an aggregate view across the Gavi portfolio and aims to increase transparency by making available the volume forecast that informs Gavi’s financial and impact projections. 
 
 
Gavi demand forecasts in general cover 12 vaccines, including:

  • cholera
  • hexavalent
  • human papillomavirus
  • inactivated polio
  • Japanese encephalitis
  • measles-containing
  • meningococcal
  • pentavalent
  • pneumococcal conjugate
  • rotavirus
  • typhoid conjugate
  • yellow fever

Related downloads

Gavi Base Demand Forecast

The Base Demand Forecast summarises actual and forecasted volumes for eleven vaccines that Gavi supports. The volumes presented are from the demand forecast used to inform the Gavi Financial forecast.

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