Strategic demand scenarios

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Long-term strategic demand scenarios offer visibility into future market needs to Gavi stakeholders including donors and industry partners.

Credit: Pfizer/2016.

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, uses strategic demand scenarios (SDSs) to improve its understanding of vaccine markets. In the context of the Gavi supply and procurement strategy, the SDS is an important tool to ensure clarity and understanding of the Gavi market for important stakeholders, including manufacturers and countries.

The SDSs produced by the Gavi Secretariat include all 73 countries that were eligible for Gavi support as of 2011 and a time horizon of 3 to 20 years.

Gavi benefits from the expertise of a Strategic Demand Advisory Team composed of Vaccine Alliance partners and other experts. This group provides advice to the Gavi Secretariat on the SDF including consultative support and technical endorsement of the vaccine specific SDSs.

Other consultations take place with vaccine experts in the public and private sectors to ensure the SDSs reflect the most important scenarios reflective of the evolution of each specific vaccine market. Gavi produces SDSs for 11 vaccines, including:

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  • human papillomavirus
  • inactivated polio
  • Japanese encephalitis
  • measles-containing
  • meningococcal
  • pentavalent
  • pneumococcal conjugate
  • rotavirus
  • typhoid conjugate
  • yellow fever
  • cholera.

For more information regarding the Gavi Secretariat’s SDSs please contact forecast@gavi.org.

>279 million

By the end of 2017, 21 countries in the African meningitis belt had immunised over 279 million people against meningitis A through Gavi-supported campaigns. Seven countries had introduced the vaccine into their national immunisation systems.

WHO/UNICEF and Gavi 2018

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