Following the publication of the AMC Monitoring and Evaluability Study, the Gavi Secretariat commissioned the Swiss Centre for International Health (SCIH) in 2008 to conduct a Baseline Study for the pneumococcal vaccine Advance Market Commitment (AMC).
The goal of the AMC Baseline Study was to establish the environment prior to the AMC as a basis for future evaluations. The study identifies indicators related to the objectives of the AMC and populates them with baseline estimates, which will determine the point of comparison for future monitoring and evaluation.
The study also models counterfactual scenarios to serve as a basis for ascertaining the potential impact of the AMC vis-à-vis traditional financial and procurement strategies.
- To define a set of indicators related to vaccine industry and disease burden which accurately capture the environment prior to the AMC.
- To collect baseline data, starting in 2005, from the vaccine industry and from countries where the vaccine would be used, consisting of quantitative and qualitative data on the epidemiology of pneumococcal disease in Gavi-eligible countries and vaccine development and production from 2005 to 2010, by AMC objective. The baseline data establish the environment prior to the AMC and will be used to understand changes in the size and content of the vaccine pipeline, pneumococcal vaccine uptake and coverage, and mortality from pneumococcal disease.
- To define counterfactuals - by developing a model for quantification - that will serve as the benchmark for testing the incrementality of the AMC and the attribution of results to the AMC concept. In particular, to develop two counterfactuals and to conduct quantitative modelling to estimate what would happen if no AMC were to be implemented and to measure incremental impact of the AMC initiative on the vaccine market and pneumococcal disease and mortality.
- To provide additional recommendations for future monitoring and evaluation(M&E). As part of the baseline study a standardised core set of indicators and tools to collect, summarise and analyse data would be developed and made available for future monitoring. This will allow future data collection for comparisons against the baseline during the life of the AMC mechanism.
2005 was agreed on as the baseline reference date as this was the year that the AMC concept was first formulated in the Center for Global Development (CGD) report 'Making Markets for Vaccines' (CGD, 2005) and in a Report by the Italian Ministry of Finance to the G8 countries (Tremonti, 2005).
Where possible and appropriate, SCIH also collected data for 2009/2010 in line with the formal activation of the AMC pilot project and the subsequent provision of the first supply contracts.
The methodology and baseline findings at the country and industry levels are reported in the Executive Summary.